AS A ONE-TIME SCHOLAR of mass communication, I say that the daily papers (and other news media) may be part of our current economic crisis. Their own economic troubles aside — and daily newspapers are in a major crisis themselves right now only partly related to general economic conditions — the mass media are part of our economic woes.

As the news media continually beat the drum of a potentially deepening recession, they not only inform us of the current state of things, they also help shape some of those very same conditions they cover.

I'll start with the paradox of thrift, an economic proposition made by economist John Maynard Keynes. The paradox of thrift says that if consumers start saving more money during times of recession, then aggregate demand will fall (and with it the economy as a whole which will in turn lower total savings by the population, thus the paradox).

So, says Keynes, saving in lean times will make things worse for the economy as a whole. Saving, which is good for the economy in good times, thus becomes detrimental hoarding in bad times.

Further, falling consumer confidence is not only an indicator of an incipient recession; it is one of the causes. When consumers are worried about a coming gloomy economy, they act as if it has already come and in doing so make it happen.

So, what do the media have to do with a recession? In emphasizing, focusing on and even exaggerating the economic threats ahead, the media are part of the problem, battering the consumer confidence that can be a bulwark against a downward spiral. Don't think the media have such power? A simple, silly example will show, in one very limited arena, how one particular media figure with a few words caused a miniature economic crisis, one you may or may not remember: The great toilet paper shortage of 1973.

This little economic footnote started entirely in the media. On December 19, 1973, Johnny Carson told a joke for that evening's show about a new commodity shortage about to hit America. (That being the era of nationwide gasoline shortages, precipitated by the OPEC oil embargo, the subject was topical.) Carson made this not-very-funny joke in his monologue: "You know what's disappearing from the supermarket shelves? Toilet paper. There's an acute shortage of toilet paper in the United States." What happened next was the real joke.

While Carson's bit was intended to be humorous — there was no toilet paper shortage — some of the estimated 20 million people watching Carson's show that night took him seriously, ran out the next morning and bought as much toilet paper as they could carry. By noon that day, stores all across America were out of stock. Some even tried to ration this now precious commodity but to no avail.

A few nights later, Carson apologized to his viewers, explaining that there was no shortage. But, by this time, he was well-intentioned but wrong as his comedy had morphed into prophecy. As other consumers had noticed the empty toilet paper shelves, they panicked and bought even more. It took three weeks before the shelves were fully stocked again — and our long national nightmare was over.

Well, a toilet paper shortage is a joke — but a recession made worse isn't.

A little more personal example comes from the late 1970s, when my grandmother was in her eighties. She lived in fear of violent crime. She kept a starter pistol, which shoots blanks, in her nightstand next to her bed. Why? Because her TV news came from Charlotte, which at the time was reputed to have a higher per capita murder rate than the then very violent New York City. What that had to do with safety in the little town of Maiden an hour's drive away, I think, was very little. But her fear was real — and as dangerous as her pistol was phony.

Now I can't say that media's fear-filled coverage of the economy has been extremely misleading — because neither I nor anyone else knows what the future holds for the economy. Nobody knows how bad this recession will be. What I do know is that it will be worse than it would have been if the media weren't so relentlessly focused on every bad report.

But I am not the first to notice this. "This great nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance." This was Franklin Roosevelt in his first inaugural address in 1932.

As sage an observation now as it was then.

Gary D. Gaddy has a Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina's School of Journalism and Mass Communication.

A version of this article appeared in the December 18, 2008 editon of the Chapel Hill Herald.

Copyright 2008 Gary D. Gaddy

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