FRED GOLDSMITH, you may or may not remember, was the head football coach at Duke from 1994 to 1998. We commemorate this month the 10th anniversary of his firing.

Goldsmith was the 1994 Bobby Dodd National Coach of the Year for NCAA Division I football — for coaching football at Duke! At a Duke home basketball game in 1994, Coach Goldsmith was introduced to a roaring ovation that was far louder than anything the Duke men's team or its coach received that day.

But that ray of football light quickly dipped below the dimming horizon, as in just a few short years, the once-heralded Goldsmith was dispatched to outer darkness — out of football altogether until 2001 when he became the head coach at Franklin High School in Macon County, North Carolina.

Duke football has not always been synonymous with the term loser. During the 21 seasons from 1945 to 1965, Duke had a winning record 17 times, went to 13 bowls (and that was back when bowl bids weren't handed out like popcorn to every team with a non-losing record).

But Duke has had but one winning season since 1990 — the 1994 campaign under Goldsmith. It was part of his undoing.

What lessons can be learned from the Fred Goldsmith years? The most important Goldsmith Variation is this: If you are a coach, don't over-accomplish early. If you're going to win — don't do it right off the bat. The general principle is to not get ahead early "in the game" in any sport at all unless you're going to win from then on out. Consider this: An early big lead in a game which turns into a loss is a termed "a choke." Conversely, with the same final score, an early big deficit followed by a very good second half is a "great comeback" that fell just short.

Likewise, a big early lead in the conference schedule followed by poor results is "a collapse." Conversely, with the same final overall conference record, a poor early result followed by success later in the year is "saving a season." (See the NC State football team in 2008.) Finally, great early success in a coaching career at a particular school, followed by mediocre results, is a "failure to move the program forward." Conversely, with the same final overall coaching record, with early mediocrity followed by success later is "building a program." (Compare Fred Goldsmith who started 8-1 to Mack Brown who started 2-20.) Among the Goldsmith Variations is the more general Principle of Recency. That is: "What have you done for me lately?" The only game result that really counts is the latest one. If you don't believe that, consider a coach who wins almost every game in whatever sport, whatever level, makes it to the championship game year after year but loses it. He is not a winner. He's a goat, who "can't win the big one." He's a loser. If you don't believe that fans could be so narrow minded and short sighted, consider the Minnesota Vikings who went to three Super Bowls in four years, or the Buffalo Bills who went to four in a row, but lost them all. They are considered not "almost great" teams. They were not called very good teams who happened to meet better. They are called losers.

So, have our local coaches learned from Goldsmith? Yes, but some better than others.

Jim Grobe of Wake got off to a poor start, that is a good one, by going 6-5 and 7-6, but before it was too late lowered expectations by going 4-7, 4-7 and 5-7. Then Wake went 11-3, 9-4 and then 8-5, which is good except now he's going downhill.

Butch Davis at UNC went 4-8 in his first season, then went 8-4, which is good except that this year he started 6-1, which is good — which is bad — since he after that he went 3-3.

NCSU's Tom O'Brien this season went 6-6 after going 5-7 last, which is mediocre but since he started 2-6 then went 4-0 to end this season, the fans are really happy.

Duke's David Cutcliffe didn't get the kinks worked out quickly starting 3-1 (in danger of committing a basic Goldsmith) but then righted himself going 1-7 for the rest of the season.. He was thinking ahead. Going 4-8 this season, he can go 6-6 next year and look like a world beater.

So how have our "Big Four" coaches done overall? Let us use the only meaningful measuring stick that there is in major college athletics: dollars. In the last two years three of the four have received raises and/or contract extensions — and the fourth, Tom O'Brien, will be receiving one shortly, I will wager.

But the real question is this, "Did Fred Goldsmith learn?" You decide. Hired in 2006 as head coach at Lenoir-Rhyne College, his Bears finished 2-9, but as school website says "the future bodes well."

Gary D. Gaddy would like wish Christmas blessings on all of his readers, even those who root for the wrong teams.

A version of this article appeared in the December 25, 2008 editon of the Chapel Hill Herald.

Copyright 2008 Gary D. Gaddy